Notes on the Blackhawks and the Draft Lottery
Yesterday, the NHL Draft Lottery took place. I’m not going to sugarcoat what happened; the result was not good for the Blackhawks. The Toronto Maple Leafs rose 4 spots to take 1st OA (8.5% chance), while the San Jose Sharks rose 7 spots to nab 2nd OA (5.2% chance). As a result, the Blackhawks will be selecting 4th OA. Sliding to 4th was the most likely outcome for Chicago (41.7% chance), but it’s still disappointing.
Photo courtesy of the NHL
Right off the bat, this means Gavin McKenna will very likely be a Maple Leaf. Despite some concerns, he appears to have solidified his status as the consensus 1st pick. Ivar Stenberg will likely not be available at 4th for Chicago either; he is considered the 2nd best forward in this draft. Getting the opportunity to draft either one of them likely gives Connor Bedard a legitimate linemate for years to come. Instead, GM Kyle Davidson will have to find that person elsewhere, which is no easy task.
As far as who is available for Chicago, one thing is for certain: whoever they select will likely not be on the team next season. This removes the ability to add someone through the draft who can make a difference right away. This doesn’t mean that a Caleb Malhotra or a Chase Reid will not be great players, it’s just that they will not be on the roster next season. GM Kyle Davidson has thrown out trading the pick, presumably for an already established player who can make a difference right away. However, those types of trades don’t typically happen. I will say, mock drafts in the coming days and weeks will give a good sense of who might be available for Chicago. Much like the lottery, drafts can be unpredictable. Do San Jose take a defenseman, to help fill a position they need? That changes the calculation for the Blackhawks in terms of who would be available.
The results of the lottery does not mean that the Blackhawks rebuild is doomed and that next season will be a failure. Through continued development of the young players and a couple offseason additions, next season will likely be another step towards playoff contention. However, there is a lot more pressure now. Had Chicago had the ability to draft Ivar Stenberg, that urgency to find a linemate for Bedard isn’t really there. Unfortunately, that seems unlikely (but not impossible) at this point. Is it possible that someone already in the system can be Bedard’s wingman? Maybe. Roman Kantserov, who should be coming over this season from Russia, might be that person. There’s just a lot more uncertainty right now because of the lottery results.
There is one more important thing that needs to be talked about. In light of the lottery results, there is a lot of consternation about previous Blackhawks draft picks. In particular, the decision to draft defenseman Artyom Levshunov over forward Ivan Demidov in 2024. Because the rebuild plan has staked so much on the draft picks, it’s natural to want to maximize value at each one. The thing is, this Blackhawks team is still a work in progress. So many players have not hit their prime yet. Did Levshunov have an easy season last year? No. But I’m confident he can grow into the player we hope he can be.
The end of the season, combined with the lottery results, has left a lot of Blackhawks concerned about the direction of the team. I don’t think those concerns are unwarranted at all. There is a LOT riding on the development of young players for next season. In my opinion, Kyle Davidson has to bring in quality players that actually help the team. Next season has to be a good step forward. To be fair, last season was a good step forward until the last 11 games. The lottery result is frustrating, but we will still get a great player.
Because if this lottery result doomed the rebuild, then maybe we need to talk about the players already here.
